Sorry I haven’t been blogging much of late, but it has been a busy few weeks with the election and what not. It’s only fitting then that I provide a post election summary…
There have been many predictions about what these results mean for parties, some accurate and some not so accurate. In any case I will add mine into that mix.
This election was not a good election. Not for my party, not for SF, not for UCUNF and especially not the DUP. It was just a bad election for NI in general and right across the European Union. Turn out was low, very low.
SF stagnated, albeit with more first preferences than the other parties. But they stagnated. They would have gained no more Assembly seats had this been an Assembly election. People in the North and South know what they offer. There’s no doubt that they found it hard to get their vote out.
In the South, they took a nosedive. Lost their European seat and had a poor performance in the locals. If they can’t gain when the government is getting a kicking, when can they? So it’s probably safe to say that unless something drastic changes for SF in the South, they’re in trouble.
The DUP are also in trouble. Rumour has it that there will soon be a few high profile defections to the TUV and a few back to the UUP, now UCUNF. Only time will tell. The DUP are looking over their shoulder at the TUV so politics in the North is going to be even more difficult to move on. Some are already saying that it could collapse. I wouldn’t think so, but things like the devolution of justice will now be virtually impossible for SF to deliver. As will the Irish Language Act etc etc so more eye wiping to follow, which is just bad news foe NI.
The SDLP vote did hold and we gained a little extra. We would have gained an additional two seats had this been an assembly election. while this is OK, it’s not great, nothing to be happy about and certainly nothing to boast about. Although, Alban did run a very energetic, positive, strong campaign and should be commended.
We do need to do better though. We need to offer the 58% of the electorate that chose to stay at home that we have something to offer them. So while SF are defined and will find it hard to shift any more ground without losing support, we have an opportunity to redefine ourselves and relate to those that feel no affiliation.
There is a new breed of politics in the SDLP, something that SF has failed to do. There is no desire for sectarian politics and only the desire to move NI forward. The SDLP will continue to redefine itself and purpose, will continue to make room and offer those 58% of the people who have no voice with a voice. We have that opportunity, others don’t.
Interesting reflection on the elections last week- I couldnt help but notice your immediate speculative diagnosis of the other political parties issues at this point, but not your own those of your own party…
I would attribute the low turnout to two things: disillusionment and the fact that it was a European not a Local Assembly election. To take the election results from the European election last week and attempt to use it as a template to predict Local Assemly election results does not provide an accurate or reliable basis for analysis of the performance of our political parties. You did manage to make at least one valuable observation. The rise in support for alternative candidates (with no affiliations) in this election indicates the turn in direction of voters attitudes towards the mainstream political parties at present. You are right. This is a golden opportunity for the SDLP to gain ground on their political opponents. However, the SDLP have, and still continually fail to seize valuable opportunities form their political opponents in both past and recent times, taking a backseat on occasions where they could and should have been at the forefront. Their growing “safe” middle of the road attitude and approach to politics in Northern Ireland, lack of focus and organization has put them firmly out of touch with the voting public’s interests in many respects, instead, on the fence at this present time as they fuss over the politics of politics. Disagree? The election results, it could be speculated, confirm it.
Your reflection speculates the issues that have plagued the performance of other political parties, yet you have not acknowledged the issues with your own party. If the SDLP are to redefine themselves, move forward and restore the voting public’s confidence in them as a genuine, active, strong contender in the NI Assembly once again, a long hard look in the mirror first is more than overdue at this point.
I really don’t see how you can say that 0.3% increase in the sdlp vote would have created a couple more assembly seats. From all reports from the verification and the count, it seems that the SF vote was up in south belfast, and foyle, and the vote was marginally down in tyrone and fermanagh. This election was more a case of, “as you were”, except for the DUP. The analysis of SF performance in the south is the media hot topic, but coming from a party that doesn’t have a presence in all parts of this island, i would say that 11% more than the sdlp in the rest of ireland is decent, although not going to break any records. In the north, 126,000 votes for SF versus 78,000 for the sdlp, is the real worry for the sdlp. That the sdlp cannot make inroads in to the SF vote on the back of concerns over education, a very low base from the last euro elction for the sdlp, and general rumblings in the SF core, is indeed the real problem. The assumption to start speaking for those who stayed away from the polling stations is a dangerous road to go down.
BK – it is not true to say that “from all reports” that the SF vote was up in Foyle. The only place this was reported was in the Derry Journal which is hardly known for its journalistic professionalism. In fact, they had to run a front page story in their next edition with an SDLP rebuttal http://www.derryjournal.com/journal/SDLP-beat-SF-in-Foyle.5360847.jp.
SDLP, Alliance, DUP and UCUNF sources have all said SF only had one tallyman at the Foyle verification. It is IMPOSSIBLE to make any accurate estimate on that basis. All other parties agreed the SDLP were at least 2000 ahead.
Apart from that, the SDLP cannot be complacent but to even get a per cent increase in a Euro election where turnout is always lower is not bad.